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Since the second half of this year, the new energy vehicle market, which has been growing at a high speed, has also shown signs of industry cooling, which has led to a variety of bad comments for a while. In fact, for the new energy market, it is in the process of changing from policy oriented to demand oriented, and the cost, performance and other aspects need to be continuously optimized. The current low tide needs to be viewed rationally, not blindly optimistic or pessimistic. The current low tide is the catalyst for the new energy industry to shuffle and transform. "Big data of car circle" is a column created by auto house for industry end users. It is specially written by senior practitioners of auto industry. It analyzes the environment and hot events of auto industry from the perspective of economy and data, and makes in-depth analysis of the phenomenon of auto industry. This issue's industry commentator, Mo Ke, ce0 and chief analyst of true lithium research. In the field of production and research, mohco mainly studies the industrial development from the perspective of data analysis and economics, and is committed to finding the relationship among micro lithium battery industry, market and technology as well as the internal relationship with Macro-economy and national policies, so as to accurately grasp the industrial and technological development network. 60s quick understanding of the core argument: ◆ in 2019, there may be zero growth in the new energy vehicle market, because the upper limit of vehicles obtained in the second half of the year is far lower than the battery cost. In the case of the decline of the traditional vehicle market, the power of vehicle enterprises to vigorously develop new energy vehicles is insufficient. ◆ the new energy vehicles in 2020 are still dominated by policies. Compared with the total market volume of 28 million vehicles, the proportion of 2 million vehicles is not high. The government will introduce stimulating policies to trigger excessive optimism in the market and achieve the goal. ◆ the era of new energy vehicle market reshuffle has come, and the market competition will be more intense next year. China's new energy vehicle market has made great progress since 2014. It once set a record of several times growth year-on-year. Even after a certain amount of base has been accumulated, it also achieved a year-on-year growth of more than 60% in 2018. However, this situation seems to be unsustainable. From January to September this year, the total output of new energy vehicles is 888000, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, but the year-on-year growth in July, August and September is negative, and the decline is accelerating (the official implementation date in 2019 is June 25). At present, there is no obvious sign of recovery in the next three months. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that China's new energy vehicle market might show zero growth this year. The logic is simple: at present, China's new energy vehicle market is a typical policy market. When the most core subsidy policies have changed substantially, the market rate will probably be "sick". The former subsidy policy generally follows the principle that the total subsidy covers the cost (refers to the battery purchase cost of the vehicle enterprise). This year, this principle has been obviously broken. For example, under the subsidy policy in 2019, the upper limit of vehicle subsidy may be far lower than the battery cost. Note: the calculation data of battery cost in 2019 in this table is obtained by weighted average of 0.85 yuan / wh data of lithium iron phosphate battery pack and 1.05 yuan / wh data of ncm523 ternary battery pack collected in July, as well as the installation data of two types of batteries. Since August, the battery price has slightly decreased, which is about 0.8 yuan / wh for lithium iron phosphate and 1.0 yuan / wh for ncm523 ternary battery. "If the traditional automobile market has a good momentum, even if the new energy vehicles are unprofitable, the automobile enterprises may still produce some, after all, this is the direction determined in the future. However, with the traditional automobile market also declining and all need to be taken care of, it is hard to say how much power the automobile enterprises will have to develop new energy vehicles in the near future. However, the possibility of growth cannot be completely ruled out. In the policy market stage, the market's response to the policy is usually excessive. If the policy is obviously unfavorable, the market's response will be excessively pessimistic, otherwise, it may be excessively optimistic. If the competent authorities or more places can introduce some stimulating policies in the next period of time (for example, more cities "conditionally" return to land compensation), then there may be better performance in the next two months of this year. In 2012-2020 of the development plan for energy saving and new energy vehicles, the State Council clearly proposed to achieve the production and marketing target of 2 million vehicles by 2020. Compared with the total market plate of 28 million vehicles, the proportion of 2 million vehicles is not high. If it is still a policy market in 2020, when the competent authorities launch stimulating policies that are attractive enough, it will still trigger an overly optimistic reaction of the market. How will the 2 million "cakes" be divided? If the electric vehicle market is divided into two parts: group purchase and private purchase, two thirds of the electric vehicle market will depend on group purchase and one third on private purchase. In 2018, the proportion of private purchase of new energy vehicles is about half (about 600000), and the proportion of this year and next is likely to decline. Since the beginning of this year, the traditional car market has declined significantly, the country has changed from 5 to 6 and other factors, the price of traditional cars has declined significantly, which will have a crowding out effect on new energy vehicles, and this situation will probably continue next year. From the perspective of different vehicle categories, in the production and sales targets of these 2 million vehicles, pure electric passenger vehicles may account for about 70%, plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles and pure electric special vehicles dominated by logistics vehicles in urban areas will account for between 10-15% and pure electric vehicles within 5%. I think that when the battery pack energy density develops to a greater extent to alleviate the "mileage anxiety" symptoms of consumers, the market share of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles will begin to decline. In 2018, the proportion of mixed passenger vehicle production in China's market will reach 21.4%, which may be its historical peak, while the proportion in the first eight months of 2019 will drop to 18%. If the target of 2 million vehicles is achieved in 2020, the growth rate in 2021 will be zero or negative. The main reasons are as follows: first, the central subsidy is completely stopped, and it will take time for the new energy vehicle market to transition from policy led to consumer demand led; second, the high growth in 2020 will cause the market to be overdrawn in advance to some extent. Therefore, in the years after 2020, China's new energy market is in an unstable development period. If China's new energy vehicle development plan 2021-2035 and relevant supporting measures issued in the future can be as powerful as China's energy conservation and new energy vehicle development plan 2012-2020, it is believed that the target of "20% of the total sales volume of vehicles in China's market in 2025 will be achieved with a high probability, but this will lead the policy to the consumer demand Extended transit time. It must be acknowledged that under the stimulation of policies in recent years, the development of China's new energy vehicles has formed a good atmosphere from industry to market. In 2018, the private purchase volume of about 600000 vehicles is significantly higher than that of European and American countries, which proves this phenomenon. With the coming of the era of explosive growth, we can almost say that "everything is ready, only Dongfeng" is the real revolutionary electric vehicle product that can stimulate consumers' desire to buy. If there are such products around 2023 and the market shows a blowout trend, it is possible to achieve 5 million vehicles in 2025, and 7 million vehicles will not be a dream. The large-scale subsidy policies directly promote the development of new energy vehicles. Many small and medium-sized vehicle enterprises that are on the verge of bankruptcy borrow new energy vehicles to "come back from the dead". However, with the substantial decline or even withdrawal of subsidies, some vehicle enterprises are facing the risk of going back to bankruptcy. Our data shows that from January 2016 to July 2019, a total of 249 manufacturers in the Chinese market had electric vehicle production records, 58 of which were not produced in 2018, significantly lower than that in 2016 and 2017. In 2019, subsidies declined sharply. As a result, the number of manufacturers with zero output in the first seven months alone reached 98, accounting for nearly 40%, and the output of 43 other manufacturers was between 1-10 vehicles, accounting for 57% in total. As the tide recedes, naked swimmers will emerge. It's not hard to predict that the market will be even worse next year. The reshuffle has come, which may last for several years and experience two fluctuations. The first is that in the era of electric vehicle products with power only changed, the manufacturers with strong manufacturing capacity and capital strength in the traditional automobile field will survive; the second is the era of real electric vehicle products, when the players in the electric vehicle market may be totally different. If the electric vehicle is just another "traditional vehicle" with different power, its "disadvantages" will be magnified by consumers, such as the product is not very mature, the charging is not convenient and the charging time is long, there is "mileage anxiety", the residual value rate is relatively low and so on. Today, the sales of traditional cars are declining. This kind of electric car with only changed power is obviously lack of competitiveness. It is unrealistic to expect it to develop against the trend. Maybe not many people can imagine what a real electric car product looks like, just as they couldn't imagine what an Apple iPhone looked like with a Nokia phone. But two things are certain: first, the real electric vehicle product is a revolution in the field of transportation, not just a change in power. Second, most of the future players in the era of electric vehicles may not be existing car manufacturers. Because the mobile phone market has already told us: the players in the mobile phone market, the era of function machine and the era of smart machine are quite different. Apart from Samsung's successful cross generation, other giants, including Nokia and Motorola, are basically facing extinction.