TU-TESL

• 22

In the second half of the year, the market of new energy vehicles has changed dramatically. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has declined in March in a row. Bad news has come one after another. Jia Laolai has finally gone bankrupt. He has been in trouble. Weima has been sent to court. Most players are in panic. In the cold rain, the boss is very active. In March of this year, Zhang Wei of cornerstone capital said, "no new car building company is worth investing." he took the lead to reply, "thank you, it's easy to be a critic, it's hard to be a builder." his words are quite hard, and his confidence is always insufficient, so he was very optimistic. When asked about the quality control, he said, "the American car building level is poor." but recently, he shouted loudly "Tesla has reached the door. According to the current exchange rate, the model 3 iron will be sold to 250000-270000 yuan (the former price) The good days will soon be over. " He Xiaopeng had to remind him "don't overestimate the competitiveness of Tesla in China". However, in October, he Xiaopeng himself also counseled. He repeatedly tweeted and wrote about his friends' circle. He revealed that only 100000 (electric cars) were sold to real consumers in the first nine months, which is almost the same as the 140000 sales of Tesla. He even said that the new force of Chinese car making is "weighing and ranking with a big iron ball." ”, no point. Chinese entrepreneurs, who are used to boasting about their own shortcomings, seldom disclose their own shortcomings. What's more, they look down on their own industries. Why is there such a huge change despite he Xiaopeng's honest boy staffing? Because Tesla is so good. Elon Musk, who has been in business for 16 years, is going out of bad luck. The first model 3 of Shanghai factory is successfully put off the production line. Q3 financial report is profitable again. The sales volume in China has increased by 64%, driving the share price up by 20% and grabbing all the eyeballs. Li Xiang's appeal and he Xiaopeng's confession actually reflect three judgments. First of all, depending on the mode of b-terminal collection, the new forces of car building can't play. In their view, the so-called closed-loop of new energy vehicles is self entertainment, which does not reach the real consumers. In other words, these online car Hailing brands such as Geely Cao Cao, SAIC xiangdao, trip, T3 and Dongfeng trip digest their new energy vehicle capacity through the operation scenario, which is of no value to start consumption and has no reference significance to the new forces of car building. He Xiaopeng's observation is related to his lessons. In 2017, Xiaopeng automobile once received 2.2 billion investment from the Shenzhou excellent automobile industry fund. At that time, there were many gold owners who wanted to invest in Xiaopeng. The reason why they invested in the Shenzhou department was that they valued the collection ability of car rental, second-hand car and special car, and the influence of outbound experience on potential users. He Tao, another founder of Xiaopeng, is an Internet person from UC background. Therefore, the best tune of Shenzhou is completely presided over by Guangqi background, who is considered to be more suitable for dealing with Shenzhou department. However, with the 4.1 billion new toy baowo car, the support for Xiaopeng is not enough, which makes he Xiaopeng feel that it can not be reduced to a vassal of the scene. At the same time, the financial scheme of packaging and car purchase is of little significance. The only difference between the original "first to enjoy and then to choose", disguised financial leasing and traditional loan car purchase is the return plan. Xiaopeng also has the first to enjoy plan, balance plan and other financial plans. However, the scale of new car building forces is limited, the property of product preservation is unclear, the industry voice is insufficient, and the cost of capital can not be reduced, most of which can not beat the traditional car manufacturers. He Xiaopeng may also think that the package financial scheme is mainly aimed at the compromise demand caused by the limited number and limited traffic, which is more suitable for low-end products. This leads to another question: is cheap new energy vehicles really needed. He Xiaopeng thinks that the low-end new energy vehicles are not "the base with quality". The global automobile industry has been passed on for a hundred years, with perfect industrial chain and costs mainly composed of body, chassis, transmission system, electronic system, etc. the new energy vehicles are more completely transparent. Before the cost of the three power systems is fully digested by the policy, the high-end vehicles will surely lose money. From Tesla to Weilai, from the ideal, most of the new forces of car building adopt the strategy of backstopping. Only Xiaopeng and Weima are positioned at about 150000-200000 yuan, and they want to cut into the mainstream mass market through the way of grounding at the beginning. The reality is that the new force of car building can't compete with the traditional manufacturers with background; it can't attack the high-end and beat the Tesla with stronger product force; it can't compete with the fuel vehicles in today's car market downturn and loose license plate restriction; it's a dead end in any way. The real killer is Tesla's localization. After the price adjustment in July this year, the price of Tesla Model s and the price in the United States have risen to $71 and $75000, which are infinitely close to the starting price. But traditional car companies are not afraid of such Tesla, Bugatti and zainu, which are also the bags of Volkswagen and Fiat? What they are afraid of is a grounded Tesla. On October 19, 2017, Volkswagen CEO Matthias Muller once mocked Tesla at a summit, "some companies can only sell 80000 cars a year, but they can win the world championship in boasting." As most of the participants were traditional car people, everyone cooperated to make a chat. However, when the new model was released recently, Herbert diess, the current CEO of Volkswagen, was unconventional and rarely said that he was "very impressed by the achievements of pettesla, which is a competitor we need to take seriously". At the same time, he acknowledged that "in terms of hardware, our two enterprises are at the same level", and Volkswagen is just leading in scale. The model 3, which starts at 35000 US dollars, marks that Tesla has gone out of the niche market and aimed at mass consumption. As Herbert diess said, "model 3 is a large-scale mass production vehicle, and Tesla is also one of the largest manufacturers of electric vehicle electric pool." Volkswagen then revised its strategy and planned to build eight new factories by 2022, so as to have 22.2 million new energy vehicle capacity in 2028, which is almost twice the annual sales volume of the Volkswagen Group last year. This is the world's number one vehicle company with a strong sense of crisis. More fearful than Volkswagen is the new power of Chinese car making. According to the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicles 2012-2020, China's new energy vehicles should achieve the production and marketing target of 2 million next year, but only 880000 in the first nine months of this year. Therefore, the development plan of new energy vehicle industry 2021-2035 under preparation is also back to reality, proposing "long-term strategy, grounding, practical recruitment, and actual effect", which is well known to people familiar with Chinese language and art What does the word "Tao" mean. From the perspective of the environment, the situation of new energy vehicles is very similar to that of smart phones in those years. If Tesla is compared to apple and traditional automobile manufacturers are compared to Samsung, the new force of car building has the opportunity to transform itself into the next millet or Huawei. But millet mode lost first. Xiaopeng and Weima both follow the cost-effective route. At the same time, they transform users from traditional brands through over grade configuration, and at the same time, they use pengyou and Weimeng (similar to rice flour) to provide unexpected services. The purpose is nothing more than to brainwash potential consumers of fake hand seed users. He Xiaopeng's so-called "slow is fast" strategy can be understood as patience cultivation experience, but the rapid entry of domestic Tesla into the mass market makes the three main financing channels close the door to the new force of car building. 1. Science and technology innovation board. Last year, there were seven or eight car companies queuing up, but after all, the technology innovation board is not NASDAQ. In addition, this kind of textbook (from 2016 to 2018, Wei Lai lost 2.57 billion yuan, 5.02 billion yuan and 9.64 billion yuan respectively), and no one broke through. In the foreseeable future, unless the quality of recommendation is reduced, the chance of new forces of car building breaking through is still very low. 2. Local government. In May this year, Beijing Yizhuang State Investment Co., Ltd. renewed Weilai's life of 10 billion yuan. In a conference call, Xie Dongfu, the CFO of Weilai, who is about to leave on October 29, stressed that the cooperation is progressing smoothly, but the credibility is questionable. As for Wuxing district government of Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, it is even more amazing that the government invested 5 billion yuan in exchange for Weilai's annual output of 200000 vehicles. According to the data of China Automotive Technology Research Center, in the first nine months of this year, there were only 12430 vehicles actually insured. It's a far cry from the goal of 50000 vehicles at the beginning of the year. Why not build another 200000 new car factories and burn money too slowly? 3. Cross industry transformation of real estate enterprises. Evergrande, Vanke, Yajule, Fuli, Hesheng Chuangzhan and other real estate enterprises are all laying out new energy vehicles, but their "circle of friends" is full of,,, and the power of vehicle building cannot enter the eyes of the law at all. Xiaomi mode can't be played, and Huawei and apple are unlikely to compete for high-end products. Huawei has accumulated a solid technical foundation for decades. Ren Zhengfei is qualified to say, "we are determined to sell as expensive as apple". The new force of car building, especially Wei Lai, originally had the opportunity to raise the target customer base by benchmarking Tesla and let each user pay for the pride of national products, but Elon Musk's city is more powerful than his feelings. Tesla's "very knowledgeable" choice to build a factory in Shanghai has wiped out the illusions of Weilai people. Costco's surging population shows that Chinese people have strong consumption power; Tesla's active failure shows that China has a good business environment, so they have to be protected rather than black. It's no surprise that Tesla China is in operation. Let's talk about policy first. In 2017, the Special Administrative Measures for the access of foreign investment in the pilot Free Trade Zone revised by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce specifically cancelled the item of "the products produced by the production enterprises must use their own brands, have their own intellectual property rights and have authorized related invention patents", which eliminated the final obstacle for Tesla to enter China. Then take the ground. On September 26 last year, Shanghai Planning and land and Resources Administration issued a notice to sell plot q01-05, unit 04pd-0303, Lingang heavy equipment industrial zone. On October 17, Tesla spent 1 billion yuan to get 1297.32 mu of land, which is also the only buyer in the auction. What's more, financial support. According to the requirements of Shanghai Planning and land and resources administration, the investment intensity of Tesla plot shall not be less than 10.85 million yuan per mu, and the total investment is about 14.072 billion yuan. Elon Musk insists on sole investment to avoid technology leakage, which will bear 25% of the tariff, so many people doubt that Tesla, who has been losing money, will not get the money. However, Tesla soon received a 12-month low interest loan totaling 3.5 billion yuan from China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and then reached an unsecured revolving loan totaling 5 billion yuan with China Merchants Bank; it also signed an asset mortgage credit agreement with a Chinese bank group, raising the revolving credit line to a total of 2.425 billion US dollars. Is Tesla worth so much? It's worth it! In the context of China and the United States, it ensures China's leading position and influence in the global new energy automobile industry. Of course, the cost is not small. Li Xiang's worry has finally come true. The domestic model 3 has eliminated the living space of the new force of Chinese car making. In the game of new energy automobile industry, China's new car making force has neither successfully passed the customs nor become a RMB player. It gradually loses its value in the cruel game and becomes a Tesla level NPC. Time, life.