Posted 2022-10-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC
At the beginning of 2020, it is unusual for us to think deeply, such as how to deepen the understanding of "preparing for the rainy day", such as how to balance efficiency, norms and justice, such as how to apply traditional Chinese culture to practice, etc. Looking at the manufacturing field, it seems that they are also playing the role of industry leaders, lecturers and even doctors. Although the debate has never subsided, at least they have been the year of going out. In contrast, more electric vehicle enterprises are like children who need to be cared for. Interesting people always bring interesting things, such as Elon. It's not bad to be a kid. As the leader of Tesla, Elon Musk often does something that "adults" don't do, such as the boring company he invested in these two days Company) has opened the first automatic driving tunnel. You can hear it correctly. This tunnel is only for cars with advanced functions. To be more direct, when others suffer from morning and evening peak congestion on the road, you can run at a speed of 200km / h in the exclusive tunnel, which only needs to add a set of auxiliary guide wheel for the wheel, about 200-300 dollars. It's a bit muddled. It won't be the automatic car wash. At present, there are two plans, one is from Chicago to O'Hare International Airport, the other is from Washington to Baltimore. To put it bluntly, whether the tunnel can be opened to traffic before ces in 2021 is obviously not the most urgent thing for Elon Musk. More importantly, "every family has its own hard to read experience". If all electric vehicle companies worry about batteries, Tesla is definitely the one who broke their heart. Two of the world's first singing hand in hand, singing "it's not easy to say love you", Tesla singing "in fact you don't understand my heart.". In February 2020, the cooperation between Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, and Ningde times, the world's largest power battery supplier, finally moved from hearsay to official announcement. From the media point of view, this is a good thing for China's battery industry. After all, this is another breakthrough in the international recognition of China's power battery manufacturing industry chain, and it may also be a good thing for China's consumers. The battery cost of the host plant has been reduced, and the model price can be greatly reduced. For example, a cheaper model 3 or a later model will appear Y is not expensive, in a word, first of all, set personality for this matter: very good! But from other perspectives: this transaction may not directly bring rich returns to Ningde times. After all, the two-year agreement does not clearly stipulate the sales volume and amount, and the specific purchase situation will be determined by order form according to Tesla's own needs. Besides, Elon Musk is one of those who has been holding on to cost control. If it's not beautified, it's stingy. At the same time, this doesn't mean Ningde era, a new battery supplier partner, can solve Tesla's long-standing battery supply pain point. Tesla knows very well that there are many partners in Ningde era, and battery supply is the most reliable thing for self-sufficiency 3. In the early stage of mass production, one of the most important factors is the capacity of Panasonic battery. So whoever has a high-quality supply chain, who can control the cost, who will control the future. In addition, after Tesla joined hands with Ningde era, there are more than n uncertain factors about how deep the technical field cooperation can be. It is simply analyzed based on the understanding of melon eaters: as we all know, the battery used by Tesla is a cylindrical cell, from the past 18650 to the present 21700. Those familiar with Ningde era also know that their main focus is CTP battery pack (cell to pack, module free power battery pack), which is a kind of block by block square battery widely matched to domestic main engine manufacturers. The difference between R & D and pursuit can easily limit the depth of cooperation between them. Of course, imagine if Tesla and Ningde will develop models for the Chinese market in the future? That way, the cooperation goes deep It's hard to say that at least Tesla has reached a cooperation agreement with LG Chemical, whose Nanjing Xingang plant will provide 21700 cylindrical lithium batteries for model 3. At present, the supply capacity of Xingang factory is about 300000, while the target production capacity of Tesla Shanghai factory is 500000. As for Panasonic, in fact, it officially announced the suspension of investment in Tesla's Shanghai plant in April 2019, but after all, Panasonic is the battery supplier with the longest and most in-depth cooperation with Tesla, and Panasonic also has battery plants in China. It is not surprising that a new cooperation will be announced one day. There are Mulan in China: horse in the East, saddle in the west, bridle in the south, whip in the North America has Tesla: North America buys technology, Europe looks for resources, Japan talks about cooperation, China shop market Although no official announcement has been made yet, Tesla's plan to build its own battery manufacturing line is almost certain. As early as may 2019, Tesla spent more than $200 million to acquire the famous battery technology company or super capacitor and battery manufacturer Maxwell by way of share exchange. This means Tesla can quickly acquire the dry electrode technology that Maxwell has developed that can store a large number of charges without losing energy. To put it plainly, this can significantly improve the energy density of lithium batteries, while providing a longer service life. According to Maxwell, this dry electrode technology can increase the energy density of the cell to more than 300 WH / kg and may increase to 500 WH / kg in the future. 500 WH / kg means twice the energy density compared to Tesla's existing cells. Of course, Tesla can also obtain important technology from Maxwell in cost control and scale of production of electric core. Soon, in June 2019, it was revealed by foreign media that Tesla started battery cell related manufacturing research in a laboratory near the Fremont plant in California. Not long after, Professor Jeff Dahn of Dalhousie University in Canada, an expert in battery research for Tesla, wrote that he and his team are testing a new battery with extremely strong endurance, which can make Tesla's battery life reach 1.6 million miles. Then, in October 2019, Tesla quietly acquired HIBAR, a Canadian battery manufacturer whose main business is manufacturing battery production equipment. At present, according to the news from the American electric vehicle industry media electek, Tesla has indeed started the pilot of the battery production line in Fremont, which is used to independently design and produce battery cell equipment. This is a new product line of Tesla, and the super factory in Germany in Europe will also start the battery manufacturing (it is said that Tesla bought a new company in these two days.) that is to say, Tesla has been using its own battery for a long time. But is that all right? Obviously not. The supply of key materials, such as metal cobalt raw materials, also restricts the capacity and quality of batteries. According to foreign media, Tesla is in close contact and negotiation with Glencore group, one of the world's largest diversified natural resources companies. Its business includes about 150 mining and metallurgical sites around the world. After signing strategic agreements or reaching in-depth cooperation intention, the supply of raw materials needed for Tesla to manufacture vehicles and batteries will be more fully guaranteed 。 In fact, there is also a question: why does Tesla or Elon Musk use the existing battery mode so obstinately? Very simple, in order to achieve a better balance between performance and cost. Unlike other manufacturers, which generally use soft bags or square cells, Tesla's battery pack mainly uses cylindrical cells. In terms of technology, this should be the most automated, mature and cost-effective cell in the current production. With the continuous decline of the production cost of cylindrical battery pack, the cost per kilowatt hour has dropped from more than $250 in 2015 to about $150, with a comprehensive decline of nearly 40%. In the face of Tesla's increasing production capacity demand, one point of single car saving is a huge savings. Of course, this does not mean that the cooperation between Tesla and the Japanese is about to end. At least at present, Tesla and the batteries needed are still produced by Panasonic, while the batteries needed for model 3 in the overseas market are also produced by Panasonic's super factory in Nevada. After talking about the battery industry, let's talk about how the cost or price of domestic Tesla will change with more domestic partners. Let's start with a few figures: at present, the localization rate of parts in Tesla Shanghai Super factory is about 30%, and the plan has been made to increase to 70% - 80% by July 2020. By the end of this year, the domestic model 3 will realize the localization of all parts (the overall time beat prediction will be delayed due to the special impact of the epidemic). As for the model 3 that has been put into production, after the full realization of localization, the cost of raw materials can be saved about 10% - 20%, the manufacturing cost can be reduced about 50%, and the labor cost can be reduced about 75%. It is estimated that the total production cost can be reduced by about 20% - 28%. This means that the gross profit margin of domestic model 3 models may reach 35%. To give a comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2019, Tesla's comprehensive gross margin is 18.8%, and the gross margin of vehicle sales is 21.6%, so 35% is quite high. And with the increase of Tesla's localization rate and the ramp up of production capacity, there is still great potential for the price of Tesla's domestic models to be explored in the future. " According to the prediction of some industry experts, by the second half of this year, the price of domestic model 3 models is expected to go down to 250000 yuan. As an ordinary consumer, I am looking forward to it.
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