TU-TESL

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Multi purpose vehicles (MPVS) are believed to be a new blue ocean in the domestic automobile market. So, is it possible for MPV market to break out? Will the car market become a new growth point in the downturn? We have combed the historical trend and regional structure, checked the supply side and demand side, and concluded that it is unlikely, especially in the household MPV market, with high limitations. Core points: 1. The year-on-year trend of MPV market is weaker than that of the overall vehicle market, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 14.4%, 11 percentage points higher than that of the overall vehicle market. 2. The status of joint venture brands in the high-end market and business market can not be shaken, and the consumption scale continues to expand steadily; there are 50 automobile enterprises and more than 60 models entered by Chinese brands, but they are mainly in the low-end market, with severe scale decline in recent two years. 3. German and Japanese car companies do not intend to make a layout in domestic MPV market in a short period of time. A few products are launched for high-end business market. 4. With the decline of the effect of the policy of encouraging fertility, the domestic fertility rate has declined significantly. The market space of MPV for household use may not be as large as expected in the early years, and the listing of 6 and 7 SUVs further squeezed the market space of MPV for household use. According to the above insurance volume, the volume of domestic MPV market is not large, but a market segment with annual consumption of million vehicles, including vehicles. At present, the proportion of MPV in the passenger vehicle market is less than 5%, in the early years, it was only more than 2%, for the first time in 2016, it exceeded 4%, and in the first three quarters of this year, it accounted for 4.2%. The domestic MPV market has experienced two outbreaks, one in 2010, a large volume in the low base market. The second time was in 2015 and 2016, with the growth rate higher than that of the whole vehicle market for two consecutive years, especially in 2016, with a year-on-year growth of 65.4%. In the same year, the annual growth rate of the first tier cities and the fourth, fifth and sixth tier cities all exceeded 70%. The supply of Chinese brand MPV also exploded in those two years. There is a policy background: "two children alone" policy was introduced in 2014. However, on the whole, the growth rate of MPV market is lower than that of the whole vehicle market. After a wave of market outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, it turned straight down again in 2017, and the decline is greater than that of the whole vehicle market. In the first three quarters of this year, MPV market fell by 14.38% year-on-year, 11 percentage points higher than that of the overall vehicle market. In the overall downward car market, the downward range of MPV consumption is obviously larger. MPV is a niche market with relatively small application scenarios, and may be replaced by 6 or 7 SUVs. Analyzing the trend of regional structure of MPV market, it can be said that success is not easy and failure is not easy. MPV market was born in the first tier cities and is stronger than the fourth and fifth tier cities. From the perspective of regional consumption trend, the proportion of tier one cities has experienced rapid decline, while tier four and tier five cities have experienced rapid expansion. At present, the consumption proportion of Tier-1 and tier-2 cities is equivalent, accounting for 22-23%, while that of tier-2 cities is slightly higher; the proportion of tier-3, tier-4 and tier-5 cities is respectively 18%, 16% and 14%. Before 2016, the growth rate of MPV in the fourth, fifth and sixth tier cities was the highest. In 2015 and 2016, for example, the annual growth level was maintained between 55% - 84%. Since 2017, the decline of these three regions was also higher than that of other regions, between 10% - 22%. In the first three quarters of this year, MPV consumption in tier-2 cities dropped by 10.6% year-on-year, which is the lowest; followed by tier-3 cities, which dropped by 11.4% year-on-year; Tier-1 cities dropped by 14.6%, tier-4 cities by 15.3%, tier-5 cities by 20.3%, and tier-6 cities by 17.6%, which are higher than the overall decline of MPV market. Obviously, in the downward market, the city with the most pressure and weak growth is also the level 4, 5 and 6 city. In the case of increasing downward pressure on economic fundamentals and weak growth of household income, the consumption level of these cities will also take the lead in declining, and their contribution to market growth will inevitably decline in the future. At present, China's brand MPV has the largest market share, with 60.2%, joint venture brand MPV 34.6% and imported MPV 5.3%. The expansion of market share of Chinese brand MPV used to rely on the sharp increase of entrants and the centralized listing of a large number of models, which is radical in the MPV market, while the joint venture brand is more conservative. Let's take a step-by-step view. At present, there are only seven joint ventures that produce and sell MPV in the domestic market. According to the sales volume of this year, they are SAIC GM, GAC Honda, Dongfeng Honda, Fujian, SAIC Volkswagen, Zhengzhou (50000 grand prize) and Ford. Among them, Jiangling sells thousands of MPV every year. Mazda, FAW Jilin, Ford and GAC Toyota all withdrew from the competition of MPV market in the past few years - GAC Toyota stopped selling Yizhi in 2018, Fujian Benz stopped selling Viano in 2018, Chang'an Ford stopped selling Maxus in 2016 and FAW Mazda stopped selling Mazda 8 in 2017. Odyssey's own vehicle enterprises are active in the MPV market, with more than 50. SAIC GM Wuling, GAC passenger vehicles,,, automobile, Chang'an Automobile and automobile rank first, among which SAIC GM Wuling is currently the vehicle enterprise with the highest market share, and GAC passenger vehicles are rapidly on the MPV market this year with the efforts of trumpchi gm8 and trumpchi Gm6. In the first three quarters of this year, the CR10 of MPV car companies reached 80%, with SAIC GM Wuling and SAIC GM Buick as the largest players. Among the top ten auto companies, 7 saw a year-on-year decline in sales, with BYD having the highest cumulative decline. Its MPV sales fell 48.7% year-on-year, and Changan Auto fell 47.9%, which is just as bad. In terms of model supply, there are 18 MPVS that have sold more than 10000 vehicles this year, and the imported ELFA with a price of more than 800000 yuan is listed as 10550. Among the 18 models, there are 11 Chinese brands, 7 of which have a price range of less than 100000 yuan, and trumpchi gm8 has a guiding price of 1768-264800 yuan, which is the highest among Chinese brands. Among the six models of joint venture brand, except Benz V-Class price range is high (the guiding price is 4718-604800 yuan), Buick gl6 and touan are in the market of 100000-200000 yuan, others are in the range of 200000-400000 yuan. Buick GL8 is still the MPV model with the highest sales volume. It has been riding MPV for more than ten years, and has been occupying the business market of the first and second tier cities, with no car to rival. Even in this bad year, the trend is still strong. Although the cumulative sales volume has declined, the decline is only 3%. Compared with the 14.4% market segment, it is not easy. The 730 with the second largest sales volume of Buick GL8 was launched in 2014, with an annual sales level of more than 200000 in 2015 and 2016. From 2015 to 2018, it won the annual MPV single car sales champion for four consecutive years, mainly in tier four and tier three cities, with the lowest sales volume in tier one cities. The regional market occupation routes of the two models of guanyajun are obviously different, and they also basically represent the joint venture brand s The competition pattern of UV and Chinese brand SUV. The sales volume of Baojun 730 fell sharply in 2018, with only 110000 vehicles, nearly cut at a waist. In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decline reached 32.7%, which is much higher than that of the market segment. Another MPV Baojun 530 of SAIC GM Wuling was launched later, which was launched in May 2018. The effect of borrowing new cars has increased by 52% year on year. These two models basically established the position of SAIC GM Wuling in the MPV market at present. Before Baojun 730, foreign enterprises did not invest enough in MPV market. In the future, some joint venture brands have launched some MPV models, but from the product point of view, they are still facing the high-end business market. For example, SAIC Volkswagen launched weiang (or named), competing products point to Buick GL8. SAIC Volkswagen has launched a MPV model touan for many years, but as a family MPV model, touan's sales volume has fallen sharply this year. After 2018, touan has not renewed it, nor introduced its mid end MPV xialang. I am afraid that it has been made clear that the family MPV market has entered the bottle neck, and Volkswagen is more optimistic about the high-end commercial MPV market. We selected 5 mainstream MPV models and compared their sales trend with Buick GL8. We can find that the business MPV market represented by Buick GL8 is growing, while the domestic MPV is hovering at a low level, and the sales volume of relevant models is in a downward trend as a whole. In fact, it is not only the public's prudence in the household MPV market, but also the Japanese brands. With MPV products such as previa and Sienna, it has a good market performance in Japan. As a low-end MPV, the mini ELFA Voxy is the best MPV sold in Japan, with a price of less than 200000 yuan, but the time to enter the domestic market is far away. Except for Nissan nv200, Nissan has no plan to import MPV into the Chinese market at present. In the Chinese SUV market, MPV models The main players are Odyssey and Alison. In 2016, there was a rumor that Honda free would enter the Chinese market, but it did not. These show that even if they are good at MPV in the international market, Japanese cars have no intention of making a big splash in the Chinese market. Looking at the annual sales trend of the mainstream Chinese brand MPV, ELFA has seen a very obvious downward trend in recent years. In addition to Baojun 730, the annual sales volume is mostly below 50000, which is good. In the second half of this year, the monthly sales volume is basically 35000, and the more popular trumpchi gm8 in August and September this year has less than 1000 upper risk vehicles. This kind of consumption volume makes foreign car companies have no desire to start. Therefore, at present, the competition pattern of MPV market is: joint venture brands are stable in the high-end business market, and Chinese brands rely on low-cost products to fight hand in hand in three, four and five cities. However, in the case of declining economic fundamentals, the consumption capacity of commodities in these regions is bound to decline, so it is unlikely that the low-end market will break out in the future, and the Chinese brand MPV active in the low-end market will bear the brunt. In the figure below, since 2015, the scale of joint venture brand MPV market, which mainly focuses on the high-end market, has been expanding steadily, while Chinese brands have been rising and falling greatly, which has shown this. There are two types of users who choose MPV, one is business needs, the other is family needs. The business demand market is clear and stable, but the market space is limited; however, from the perspective of the operation of German and Japanese car enterprises with a keen sense of smell, the family demand is not favored by them, for a reason. I'm afraid that the key demand of MPV for household use is not as rigid as expected. It's still a "fake demand". Based on the judgment of fertility trend, MPV at home does not have the possibility of large-scale expansion. The "two children alone" and "two children in an all-round way" policies did not produce the expected effect and failed to reverse the low fertility trend. For example, in 2018, the application rate for the second child index of 370000 couples in Shanghai was only 4.6%. Moreover, the policy effect has obviously subsided. In 2018, China's birth population decreased by 2 million, about 12% compared with 2017, and the total fertility rate dropped to 1.52. Moreover, studies predict that the number of women of childbearing age in China will decrease by 44% by 2030, which indicates that the birth population will decline significantly. With the high cost of parenting, the total fertility rate of one child continues to decline, and one child is unwilling to have another child. Where is the second child coming from? With the decline of fertility and birth rate, the imaginary rigid demand has become soft. A commonly mentioned application scenario of home MPV is "family trip / travel". However, even for two child and multi child families, family trip / travel is not a routine operation. The primary scenario of family car is daily commuting. If MPV is the only family car, it is obviously a bit of "waste", but in the case of economic environment is not optimistic, there are many alternatives for family travel, such as rental, six seat / seven seat SUV. In the future, it can be predicted that the MPV market will further decline. In the case of low-speed growth or even downward trend of the overall vehicle market, it will "suffer more", especially in the low-end market